I am afraid I am a die hard Hillary fan. And I am a bit miffed at the fact that blacks can support Obama at 90% but women can't get their act together and support the first woman candidate in history at the same rates. Especially one who was so much more experienced than her opponent. I wonder what ancient gene we carry that makes us look at each other as competitors rather than allies?
In fact I just got back from the Texas Democratic convention, which took place over the weekend. Hillary won the popular vote in Texas but the caucus system that followed after gave Obama the lead from the caucuses and he ended up with 99 delegates to her 94. Based on my direct experiences here with the Kool-aid drinkers I am sure had it been reversed and Obama had lost to Hillary in such a close contest there would have been a blood bath at the convention.
It was hilarious for Hillary supporters at the convention because the at large delegates are chosen by a long drawn out process. After the party determines the split they then turn it over to the campaigns themselves to pick their delegates. The Clinton campaign process went quickly and the slate was submitted based on rewarding those that helped the nominee the most in the state. The Obama campaign however had huge problems. Dallas has two potential black power bases. One is a guy named Ron Kirk -wealthy black attorney and the other is the senator from the 23 district -Royce West- an old time typical democratic political power broker- the worst of that kind whether you are white or black. Well Royce West submitted his own slate completely ignoring the campaign's slate and since he had bought (not literally i.e. with money) the vote of the right members of the committee - he won. The floor fight was soooo entertaining watching them fighting amongst themselves and such a harbinger of what is to come.
I supported Hillary initially because she worked to achieve single payer health care before it was cool and she (and Bill Clinton before her) understand how hard it is for most people in the US to survive day to day and they understand that government policies shape the ability of these people to compete. Her policies would have been even more fair and progressive than her husbands (she's even smarter). And finally I supported her because she is a woman.
The reason I did not support Obama were a) he had no intention of pushing for universal healthcare and anything less will fail (can you say panderer), b) he blamed the democrats and republicans equally for the gridlock in Washington which in my mind is utterly naive or a deeply cynical ploy to win the election and c) if he is supposed to be the savior/ transformational character he portrays himself as then there would have been some evidence of that from his 8 years in his senatorial district. But there are no new initiatives that he "inspired " people to do for themselves nor any that he spearheaded to make a real difference in their lives -he was merely competent and showed up to vote (except for the excess of present votes he seemed to cast). In other words he is way too middle of the road for me and all decisions have been made to advance his career (the latest being throwing his church under the bus after 20 years of being a member- lets not get into why he started going).
So is America ready for a black president, maybe, but in my mind not this black nominee against this republican nominee. I believe that Obama has already peaked in terms of generating Kool-aid drinkers and that barely got him half of the democratic party. An analysis of the primaries vs. the caucuses through June 2nd showed that 34.5 million people participated in primaries and Hillary won those by both popular votes and delegates (i.e. +67). The caucus states had 1.1 million participants but netted Obama +205 delegates- so the voices of a tiny percentage of Americans overturned the majority (http://www.talkleft.com/media/caucusjune 2rev.pdf). While that is a clever campaign strategy it does not win you the general. I think he will have a huge loss to McCain and then all the hand wringing will start over again. How could the dems have lost when every thing indicated a landslide? He may end up the most hated man in the democratic party as were/ are Kerry and Gore.
Many Hillary supporters will support Obama whether they really like him or not but he will lose a significant number of the women's vote because he called Hillary a liar and dishonest and willing to do anything to win. He used republican talking points and questioned her character repeatedly. He will also lose a significant amount of the Hispanic and Asian vote for a variety of reasons - some to do with racism and some to do with his lack of experience. And he has completely lost the blue collar worker that is required to win West Virginia, Kentucky Ohio, Pennsylvania etc, the so-called Reagan Democrats and without those three groups he cannot put together an electoral college win.
Perhaps he will register all those people in this country who never vote and that will put him over the top. But I can tell you the Oba-ma-niacs who came out to participate this year are not interested in the process beyond him. The most striking thing was how many people wandered around the convention wearing T-shirts that said, "The only Truth that stands before us is Obama". I find that frightening. Can you imagine wearing such a thing for Kerry or Hillary? The president of the US is not the messiah. Are all of his supporters that way -of course not. But too many are. Have you ever visited his web site? He is in a white suit at the top of the page in a blue background with clouds all around. It couldn't be clearer what they want to imply. During the primaries (they seem to have taken it down now) he had a map of the US with rays of light coming out of each state that he won. Truly scary.
I can safely vote my conscience this year because neither Hillary nor Obama will win Texas. So I will go out and punch the ballot for every democrat except him and I hope I am able to write in Hillary. My calculation might be different in a swing state, but perhaps not. Many I know feel the same way. Meanwhile I will work to eliminate the caucus part of our voting system here. The obama -ites would not allow us to revamp the laughable Texas caucus system this time because that would delegitimize his win but they won't be at the convention in 2 years so it can be done then. The super delegates did not accomplish what they were created for anyway (choosing the candidate that can win in NOvember) and so for the sake of real democracy should be eliminated. Those are changes I can work for and then make sure Hillary is the candidate in 2012 when she will have no trouble beating the incumbent McCain.
I hope the Supreme Court remains as is but that is up to Patrick Leahy and the other democrats that are going to have to grow a backbone. This does have a silver lining. If McCain wins the repugs will own this war completely and they won't be able to blame democrats for losing it. That is worth a lot.
The media (and super delegates and Obama spokespersons) excoriated Hillary for staying in the race and accused her of thinking she was entitled. It is more complicated than that. She stayed in because WE (women) are the ones who are entitled - she stayed in it for us. All I can say is Thank you Hillary.
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